專題演講：Risk-Benefit Rebalancing Model in PPP Infrastructure Development

　

時間：97年8月4日(一)
地點：營管所視聽教室（工程五館四樓E6-A413）

演講者：Henry Chan

　　　　PhD student

　　　　Stanford University, CA　Collaboratory for Research on Global Projects

議題主持人：黃榮堯教授

本次演講的內容主要是將英國發展已經超過10年的Public Private Partnerships（PPP）制度，引進台灣，做為台灣在發展民間參與公共建設（BOT）時的參考，介紹包含BOT/PPP的基本融資觀念與專案的價值分析與風險管理分析。

演講摘要：

In order to alleviate their fiscal burdens, many governments have invited international private investors to participate in infrastructure development through schemes such as PFI, BOT, and PPP. Obsolescing bargain scholars suggest ex-ante favorable concessions terms are often offset by ex-post renegotiation initiated by the host government. On the other hand, other studies have shown that opportunistic private parties can 'hold-up' the host government and renegotiate for more favorable terms during the construction period. Studies have found that more than half of PPP infrastructure projects in Latin America from the 90’s were renegotiated. Past literature has focused predominately on bi-lateral opportunism as the explanation for ex-post renegotiation. This paper provides the framework for an alternative explanation for the high renegotiation rate in PPP projects. Instead of treating the contract amount as a rigid project value, real option analysis is used to determine the evolving real option values of a number of sample projects. It is hypothesized that as the risk-benefit balance of the project changes at various development stages due to progress and new information, each stakeholder reevaluates its relative risk-benefit ratio compared to the other party. If the perceived real option value, based on the relative risk-benefit ratio, becomes excessively favorable to either side, the other party will either initiate renegotiation or change its behavior unilaterally in an attempt to rebalance the risks and benefits shared between them. The new perspective presented in this study views renegotiations as expected, necessary and efficient means to restore equitable levels of risks and benefits to both governments and investors, instead of viewing them as opportunistic behavior by either side. The findings of this interdisciplinary study will integrate knowledge across multiple disciplines: construction management, finance, political science, behavioral economics, and international law.

 

資料來源：1.中央大學營建管理所
　　　　　　網址：http://www.cem.ncu.edu.tw/News/News_Detail.aspx?NewsID=201。